The Way I See It – Debate round two could be big; Hillary Clinton in good position though race closer
Round two of the presidential debates are coming. As I figured, Donald Trump can’t do anything gracefully and that has extended to losing the first debate. I wish he would shut up about the issues out in the weeds and focus on the issues at hand.
I would really like to know if he is a guy I can vote for, or at least cast a vote in his direction against Hillary Clinton.
Right now the answer is “probably not”. As more stupid crap about beauty pageant contestants emerges because he won’t quite trying to defend himself on the issue, and more personal tax crap stays in the forefront for the same reason, etc. the less I can trust him. I swear the guy can’t focus on even the most important of issues and he is so easily distracted it’s scary.
The first presidential election I remember was Nixon-Humphrey. I was in grade school. The first president I remember was John Kennedy, mainly because of the tragedy of his assassination. I was only 3!! The first election I paid any real attention to was Ford-Carter and the first election I voted in was Carter-Reagan.
I’ve always been more of a third party guy, but lean slightly Republican. I voted for Reagan twice, Bush Sr. twice, Perot, Bush Jr. twice, McCain and Romney.
If I’m a moderate, why so many Republicans?
To me the first three are obvious. Reagan and Bush Sr. were good presidents and obviously better than their opponents. Perot was a fresh idea and a third party guy who actually had the numbers to compete. Bush jr. vs. either of his opponents was a better, though not ideal, option. McCain would have been a far better President that President Obama turned out to be and that was already obvious when Romney was the Republican nominee.
When I go back and look at the candidates who lost or won over the years I can at least say they were, at worst, a wash. Not even Mr. Obama had a “bad” track record, certainly nothing as bad as Hillary Clinton. Also he was far more personable and able to stay on task than Donald Trump.
Now we truly face a choice between a proven evil in Hillary Clinton and a loud-mouthed blowhard who can’t stay on task (which makes him, potentially, a choice as bad as Hillary Clinton).
As I look at the constantly changing poll numbers I note a few things that aren’t likely to change. Hillary will win California and New York hands down; easily. She like Trump, will likely take a handful of other states with relative ease as well. But there are more states in play than in most election cycles; most say 12 or 13 this election cycle, rather than the normal 7 or 8 or less.
Still, Hillary will likely win if things stay as they have been in recent weeks. While the race has tightened considerably in the national polls, the state battleground polls are not looking good for Trump. The best-guess calculation based on polls presently has Hillary Clinton with a 200-163 lead in delegates. Those will likely hold unless something big happens. Even then, it is unlikely Hillary Clinton will lose many, if any, of those states. Donald Trump has a more tenuous grasp on his present 163 “sure deal” delegates and needs 110 of the remaining 175 battleground delegates to win. Presently He is behind or within the margin of error in all but a few of those states. However, to be fair to both candidates, the real race has just begun. The next presidential debate will likely move the slide one way or another, considering the number of undecideds still out there. That could certainly tip the scales in several battleground states; and possibly bring some others into play. No matter what happens over the next month, it should be an interesting election night.Posted: by OverlieP