The Way I See It – Did Trump video sink his campaign? It is hard to tell, but he won the debate
I had planned to give my opinion on the debate on Sunday, and that is exactly what I’m going to do! However, mention of the infamous Trump Video has to be brought up because that news broke on Friday and will probably affect the polls as much as, or more than, the debate.
Let me say outright, I am not defending Trump, but some reasonable dialog is needed. In our oh so PC world there is no room for discussion, but I’m going to try.
I’m pretty sure everyone, including those talking heads and politicians on TV who keep yapping about how horrible this is, has likely said something in a private conversation they would be embarrassed by if it became public.
Here’s the story – in 2005 Trump made comments about trying to have sex with a married woman, and about what a celebrity can get away with when meeting up with beautiful women. He was vulgar in his language and the topic was certainly not one to be discussed in polite company. He said he always goes for the kisses, however he NEVER said he did the other thing (grabbing a woman by the privates), only that celebrities can get away with it (get away with anything in fact). He did NOT say he had ever done it or that he advocated doing it just that celebrities can get away with it; which is, likely, true.
The point is that he was talking with another TV celebrity in what I’m sure they both assumed was a private conversation. While no politician can afford this kind of revelation, Trump is right; it was “locker room talk”. At some point between 14 and death the vast majority of (Probably all, whether they will admit it or not) men have either engaged in or, at least, heard it. I’ve been told many women have as well.
All that considered, why has this become a big media issue? In this light it is ludicrous.
Therefore, everyone, quit being so hypocritical!
Now on to the debate!
First off, Trump won this one, outright, it wasn’t even close. Clinton did a better job of giving specifics when answering some of the questions, but she dodged a few to get across her talking points or sling a zinger toward her opponent. Trump was more general and vague in many of his answers but did do well on several. All-in-all it was pretty close in the substance of the real issues and questions with Clinton doing a bit better in my opinion.
But that was the only place she was even close.
In the head-to-head battle between the candidates, always a part of any debate, Trump won big. The bigger blows on issues, the better sound bytes and better laughing points all went to Trump; and he landed a lot of those blows. Clinton seemed flat, off balance and unable to counter with any effect.
On style, I guess it depends on what you are looking for. Trumps engagement with the moderators, connection with the crowd, and even his interruptions of Clinton, just flowed and seemed to come at the right moments. Even when Clinton tried to answer with barbs of her own and interruptions of her own they just seemed poorly done and badly timed.
In the first debate Trump was clearly winning in the first half hour, but lost it down the stretch. Still, after the good start, he held his ground well enough to make it basically a draw. In this debate Clinton got off to a better start, but never put Trump on his heels and Trump generally dominated down the stretch.
Without the “October Surprise” of the Trump video I believe this debate would have moved the numbers notably in Trump’s direction both overall and in the battleground states.
It still could!
However that depends on the undecided voters and the Republicans; both hard-line and those who lean Republican. As I said above, generally the video is not relevant and is really meaningless. Nor does it have anything to do with any of the issues at hand.
The timing and sensationalizing of this video is the real problem; timing can be everything, so maybe it will affect the election.
While I don’t believe a majority of Americans will even consider it when they go to the polls, some might. In a close election that could be the difference.
In the final analysis, it will be interesting to see if the polls do move, what direction they move and how far they move. It is likely we won’t know the real combined affect until next Monday or even Tuesday. There is another debate on next Wednesday and it could very well decide the election if the polls remain about where they are or move in Trump’s direction at all.
Regardless, the final debate will be more important to Trump than Clinton. It is likely that all she has to do is keep it interesting and close, she can afford to lose, but she can’t afford to get clobbered again.
Trump needs a win and needs to find the big issue or various points that will turn the independent moderates his way by a fairly large margin, especially in the battleground states.
As for me, my mind is pretty much made up and it had nothing to do with the debate. Which way am I going… I may reveal that after the last debate; or not, we will see.Posted: by OverlieP