The Way I See It – Presidential primaries are turning into interesting battles with a lot of “what ifs”
Time to check out the political scene this week! The race for the nomination in both parties is nothing if not a wild one and we will take a look at them both.
Last I comment on the races we were headed into Super Tuesday. Hillary Clinton was faltering in the Democratic primaries and Trump had gained some momentum on the Republican side. The race was very interesting and I expected Super Tuesday to really make a statement.
First in the Democratic Primaries:
Hillary won most of the states, but can’t seem to shake off Bernie Sanders. In the Primaries since, Sanders has won Kansas, Main and Nebraska to regain some of his early momentum. The race sits with Clinton having 672 of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination and Sanders has 477. The issue right now is with so-called “Super Delegates” who are presently going Clinton by a 458-22 margin. However, I’m not convinced those are totally locked down. It seems I remember that being an issue in 2008, so we will see. The present count then becomes Clinton 1,130 and Sanders 499.
On the Republican side things are a bit different. There are four left in the race with Trump holding 384 of the 1,237 delegates needed, Cruz at 300, Rubio at 151 and Kasich at 37.
Where will the delegates pledged to Ben Carson (8), Jeb Bush (4), Carly Fiorina (1), Mike Huckabee (1) and Rand Paul (1) end up? If Kasich drops out soon he has 37 delegates, how will they go? Added up they amount to 52 delegates which, should all go to Cruz, would narrow the gap considerably.
I actually expect Rubio to drop out by May and his 151 would more than make up the distance between #1 and #2 in this race. It may very well still be the difference by then.
This may not be an issue if Trump can garner the 1,237 outright, but if it becomes a “brokered” convention, it will be a big deal. As close as this is between the top two and the longer Rubio and Kasich stay in (and perhaps get a few wins of their own), the more likely that brokered convention becomes.
That will not sit well with Donald Trump, as he has already stated. If he has a lead at the end, especially if the margin is notable, he has stated he would consider a “third Party” run if he loses the nomination. It may happen even if he loses outright. That will certainly divide Republican voters and likely hand the Democratic Party the Whitehouse. It is the same situation that existed when Perot ran in 1992. Though analysis post election seems to indicate it that was not the case, it is highly unlikely that more than 2.3rd of the Perot vote came from conservative, especially fiscally conservative, voters. The exit polls are pretty meaningless as they are a snapshot of all Perot voters. As one analysis I read showed, some 13 million “new” voters turned out. That analysis assumes all of them (or a huge vast majority) voted for Perot. It also assumes none of them would have voted if Perot wasn’t on the ticket.
I highly doubt that. Maybe half wouldn’t have voted; maybe even a bit more. Take 14 million voters (Roughly 2/3rds of Perot voters) and you have to assume most, if not all, were fiscal conservatives. How many of them would really have voted for a Liberal Democrat with a socialized medicine program on the agenda? I would guess some, but not many. Even if a quarter of them did, Bush wins by something over 3 million votes.
O.K., coulda, shoulda, woulda; it doesn’t matter; right? Maybe not, but it could become a good history lesson.
Perot was a successful businessman just like Trump. In fact, if Trump loses the Republican nomination and runs as a third party candidate, I would say the situation is identical.
That is why I am so interested. Because of many of his own statements in the run-up to the primaries and on the campaign trail, I believe Donald Trump will have real problems winning a general election. Sure, he could pull it off! But he better hope Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination as her negatives outweigh his.
Thus, I don’t think it is good if Trump wins the nomination, and it may be even worse if he loses. I’m thinking a Trump/Cruz or Cruz/Trump ticket might help whichever wins the nomination when it comes time for the general election.
There will be a lot to look at and a lot of interest in the conventions this year. It will be fun to see which candidates will come out on top and how they whole process stacks up!Posted: by OverlieP