The Way I See It – The Presidential election was quite a surprise to almost everyone; none more than me!
It is really an interesting dynamic to look at who should have won this election (according to the polls) and how the results actually came out.
First off, Hillary Clinton had this thing in the bag in early October., or so it seemed. Than came a month of constant negative campaigning with one surprise after another.
It all started with the wikileaks releases which I believe pushed the Clinton camp to drop their planned October Surprise early; the infamous “Trump Video”.
Trump campaign’s countered with an attempt to parade out Hillary Clinton’s involvement in vilifying her husband’s accusers back in the 90s.
Trumps numbers continued to decline for a week or more. Then the Trump campaign got a pair of unexpected helpful stories that did seem to stop the fallout from the video. First was news that Obamacare was imploding and insurance premiums were going up everywhere by an average 25% and more than doubling in at least one state – Nevada. The next was news that the FBI was re-opening Clinton’s e-mail investigation. These two revelations, along with the continued dumps of hacked Podesta e-mails, should have sunk the Clinton Campaign, but it didn’t.
Just when it looked like Trump’s momentum would overcome anything the Clinton camp could do… it just stopped.
Come the Monday before the election Trump was stuck at about the same 2-3 percentage points behind Clinton he was at on Friday. If anything, Hillary Clinton had gained some ground by Monday in the national polls.
But this election is not won by popular vote alone!
The state-by-state polls showed further weakening for the Clinton Campaign. Perhaps the national polls were wrong, as they were in 2012, and the state-by-state polls are showing a more accurate picture.
Coming into election day, Hillary Clinton remained ahead of Donald Trump in the national polls – but the Clinton camp was looking at an Electoral College map that no longer had her winning and showed a clear path to victory for Trump. I’ll spare you the numbers and the details.
One good thing, I thought, going into election night is that we should have had some pretty good Idea of how this is going early. If Clinton wins New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida it is probably over for Trump. If Trump wins Florida and either one of the other two, he is in good shape and has a chance.
So what happened?
He won Pennsylvania…
Wisconsin went Trump as well.
And it looks like Michigan as well.
The only traditionally battleground states that went to Clinton where Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada. Take away recent Democratic strongholds Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Trump loses. There is a very good reason Democrats felt this was “in the bag”. All they really had to do was hold in their strong areas and hold Colorado and take Nevada or any other state and they win.
And so much for her 2-3-4% margin nationally. It appears she will win the popular vote, by less than half a percentage point, but far from the 5 points or more some polls were showing and even a good distance below the 3% the poll averages were showing.
I thought Trump was showing the closing numbers to win the popular vote, but I did not see him cracking the “blue wall”, let alone smashing it to bits! I though he might win the popular vote by as much as 1%, but lose the Electoral College by a 272-266 or 288-250 margin.
I never saw Pennsylvania coming!
No one did.
When Clinton won Virginia I thought the eastern path to victory was closed. I kept expecting to see Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan all go to Clinton as well. When Colorado and Nevada were called for Clinton I thought it was over. Trump had peaked at 254 and leading 254-219 but he was unlikely to go higher than 259. Close, but not enough to win.
I went to bed figuring Clinton was going to pull out a close win.
I woke up to Trump as the new President!
It appears he will also win Michigan but lose New Hampshire making the vote total 306-232
Craziest outcome I’ve ever seen. Yes, both George W. Bush elections were closer, but both followed the generally accepted Republican path to victory after ‘92. This one did not!
I don’t want to read too much into this election; it may prove to be an anomaly and not represent anything more. But I wonder. Is it possible to smash all the election “givens” and get back to the pre-2000 days when any state was up for grabs if the candidate was strong enough? Could we see the pre-1988 days when even a New York or a California are up for grabs? Where the President wins by 5 or 10% in the popular vote, or even more?
That is what it will take to unify our country politically. Ronald Reagan won 525-13 in the Electoral College in 1984 and took the popular vote by a whopping 54, 455, 000 to 37,577,000.
Now that is a unifying election!!
I can only hope we can get together like that again some day. Sure, we still had our philosophical differences, we still didn’t like some of the things the other party, or any party for that matter, stood for; but we truly came together as a nation.
Downsides, Backlash and the real haters among us
The fear mongering, anger and hate I’ve seen on social media and displayed in the anti-Trump protests saddens and sickens me on many levels. Some of this happened to George W. Bush, but not to any great extent; and it was a much closer decision. Nothing like this happened when Obama was elected, (though the celebrations in some places were crazy) and it didn’t happen in spite of the racist rhetoric publicly displayed toward McCain voters.
Liberals like to label others as sexist, racist, homophobic, haters. It seems to me that the only haters out there are liberals themselves; but I’ve known that to be true for a long time.
People on the street publicly calling for violence and some kind of civil war because Trump was elected – Really? Students so upset they can’t attend college classes, or in a few cases even walking out of high schools. Seriously?
All I can do is shake my head and hope all these people, whether those too weak to go to class or the protesters unwilling to accept a loss, grow up and get a little tougher. If they don’t, the future is a bleak one.
I had hoped President Obama would be able to be a unifier; at least along racial divides. It wasn’t healthcare, it wasn’t the war on terror, it wasn’t economics that I felt was his strong point. In fact those were the reasons I voted against him. However, I though the first African-American President would, at the very least, soften the racial divide. Perhaps even make this a true post-racial country.
It didn’t happen and I feel he never tried to make it happen. In fact, I believe, that he even hardened the battle lines and increased the divide. I don’t believe it was intentional, but it happened all the same. To me that is the saddest part of his presidency. The greatest opportunity lost.
Finally I’m both happy and sad. The only dog I really and in this fight was keeping Hillary out of the Whitehouse – that happened. For that I’m grateful. But Presidential Elections are about the best full-contact sport in the world and, like the Olympics, it only comes around every four years. For that I’m a bit sad.
But I’m also very relieved! Like everyone else, I grew tired of this election cycle, too much of it was focused on the negatives of the candidates and Trump did nothing to engender hope with his constant defensive counter-attacking. I would have liked to see him stay more with the facts (Hillary was a legitimate target rich environment) and focusing more on why we should vote FOR him. I believe, if he had, this could have been that landslide win, both in the EC and the popular vote, this country so desperately needs.
Maybe next time!
Should the Electoral College be eliminated?
Are you kidding!
The reasons for the Electoral College in the beginning are even more necessary now than ever. We are a country with over 300 Million people, and something like 200 Million of them are legal voters if they choose to be. Over 120 million cast their vote in this election. So far, Hillary Clinton looks to be the candidate with the most popular votes, though she lost the EC election. But, we still haven’t counted all the votes a week after the election. New Hampshire and Michigan are being re-counted. Can you imagine a national re-count? Remember what happened in 2000 when Florida was the only state going through a re-count to decide the election?
I’m sorry folks, but under a popular vote only system I can see a massive mess that could have close elections taking a year to decide. I’m not willing to see that EVER happen.
Certainly we could go to a system where the states must all go to a “districting” deal where all congressional districts are divided up and each district has a delegate to the Electoral College. But both Senate based delegates would go to the overall vote in the state. I’m not quite sure if, or how, that would have changed the final results. For every extra Hillary Clinton delegate she got in states where Trump won, he would have gotten close to an equal number in states where Hillary won. I’m thinking the results would have came out pretty close to the same; but who knows?
People must also understand that the campaigning by the candidates would change, and likely change drastically, in a popular vote election. If states like Montana, Idaho, Alaska and Wyoming don’t get much attention now, imagine what it would be like if it was all about the popular vote? It would be all about 10 or so states.
Then there are those who think every county or every voting precinct would get one vote. In either of those systems Trump won BIG!! But they totally ignore population and the popular vote.
Naaahhh! I like the Electoral College system the way it is. It certainly isn’t perfect, but it is the best of all the choices I can see. However, I believe ALL EC Delegates must be faithful to their states. An Electoral College where delegates can go against the vote in their state puts us back to a “No Confidence” system and one where your vote in your state no longer matters. Plus it would delay knowing the outcome until December – I don’t like that either.
— By Paul OverliePosted: by OverlieP